In the second quarter of 2025, Russian banks saw a 2.4% increase in claims on companies, following a slight decline of 0.2% in the previous quarter. The Bank of Russia expects that as monetary conditions become less strict, demand for loans will gradually rise. As a result, claims on companies are projected to grow by 9–12% by the end of 2025, compared to an earlier forecast range of 8–13%.
Outstanding mortgage loans among households grew at a faster pace in the second quarter (+1.4%) than in the first quarter (+0.01%). However, this growth was slightly below what regulators had anticipated. Consequently, the upper bound for the annual mortgage loan growth forecast has been revised downward from 8% to 6%.
The consumer loan portfolio continued to contract during the same period, shrinking by 1.6%. This decline is attributed to ongoing tight monetary and macroprudential policies. The upper limit for consumer loan growth this year has also been reduced from 4% to 2%.
The net interest margin forecast for year-end remains between 4.0% and 4.4%, with expectations that it will be closer to the higher end of this range. According to the Bank of Russia: “High interest income offsets the growth in the cost of risk, which is why the net profit forecast for 2025 has been maintained at ₽3.0—3.5 trillion.”
Additional information can be found in the quarterly review Banking Sector.
