In the first quarter of 2025, the corporate portfolio saw a slight contraction of 0.1% following a 2.9% expansion in the last quarter of 2024. This shift was influenced by significant budget expenditures under public procurement contracts during January and February 2025, coupled with high loan rates. Despite these changes, the Bank of Russia’s forecast for corporate lending remains within an 8–13% range, as a rebound is anticipated.
The volume of outstanding mortgage loans showed minimal change, although new mortgages decreased by about one-third. This decline is attributed to the usual slowdown in lending activity at the year’s start and elevated market rates. Government-subsidized programs accounted for approximately 85% of total new mortgages, while market-based mortgage lending experienced slower growth. The mortgage portfolio is expected to see moderate expansion between 3–8% over the year, supported by government subsidies.
The consumer loan portfolio continued its contraction due to stringent monetary and macroprudential policies, showing a decrease of 1.4%, mainly in cash loans. Consequently, the forecast for consumer loans remains unchanged, ranging from -1% to +4%.
Given that the main banking sector indicators align with expectations set by the Bank of Russia, the net profit forecast for 2025 is maintained within ₽3.0—3.5 trillion.
Further details can be found in the quarterly review Banking Sector.
