The Bank of Russia has released a draft of its Monetary Policy Guidelines for 2026–2028. The document outlines the central bank’s objectives and the main principles guiding its monetary policy over the next three years.
According to the draft, the Bank of Russia presents three alternative scenarios for economic development: a disinflationary scenario, a proinflationary scenario, and a risk scenario. These are in addition to the baseline scenario that was published in July. The scenarios are built on varying assumptions regarding both external and internal factors, taking into account current trends as well as potential risks.
The bank states that these scenarios allow it to be prepared for different possible developments. Regardless of which scenario unfolds, “monetary policy will be aimed at returning annual inflation to 4%. To this end, the Bank of Russia will implement appropriate measures depending on the situation in the economy, price dynamics, and the environment in financial markets.”
The draft guidelines also include appendices and boxes that discuss topics such as how monetary and fiscal policies interact, changes in banking regulation from 2023 to 2025 and their impact on monetary policy, companies’ interest expenses, and issues related to the cost channel.
