The Bank of Russia has announced updates to its stress testing scenarios for non-governmental pension funds (NPFs), with the new measures set to take effect from September 30, 2025.
These updated scenarios are designed to evaluate how NPFs would perform if there were negative changes in the economic environment. The scenarios also include an expected gradual recovery in government bond yields and reaching the inflation target.
After discussions with a self-regulatory organization that represents NPFs, the Bank of Russia decided to publish these scenarios ahead of their implementation. According to the central bank, this move is intended to improve risk assessment by market participants and make regulatory actions more predictable.
“The Bank of Russia has updated stress testing scenarios for non-governmental pension funds (NPFs), which will apply from 30 September 2025,” a statement from the regulator said.
“The scenarios are aimed at assessing funds’ resilience in the event of an adverse change in the economic environment. In addition, these scenarios assume a subsequent smooth recovery in government bond yields and the achievement of the inflation target.”
“Following consultations with a self-regulatory organisation uniting NPFs, the Bank of Russia has decided to publish scenarios in advance, before they are applied by funds. This will help improve the quality of risk assessment by market participants and enhance the predictability of the regulator’s actions.”
“The Bank of Russia and Self-regulatory organization National Association of Non-State Pension Funds will continue to work together to reduce model risk during stress testing.”
The collaboration between the central bank and industry groups aims to further minimize risks associated with modeling during stress tests for pension funds.
