In the fourth quarter of 2024, corporate lending growth slowed to 2.9%. This was partly due to companies repaying loans with payments received under government contracts. Despite this deceleration, the year-end growth rate stood at a high level of 17.9%. However, projections for 2025 suggest a more moderate increase in corporate lending, estimated between 8% and 13%.
The mortgage portfolio also experienced a decline in growth, recording a rate of 1.5% over the quarter. This was primarily attributed to a decrease in market-based mortgages amid high interest rates. Mortgage lending expanded by 13.4% throughout 2024 and is expected to grow by approximately 3% to 8% in the upcoming year.
Consumer loans saw a contraction of 2% during the quarter but increased overall by 11.2% in 2024. The Bank of Russia estimates that consumer loan growth might fall within the range of -1% to +4% in 2025 due to tight monetary and macroprudential policies.
Corporate deposits rose by 11.9% by the end of last year, while household deposits increased significantly by 26.1%. A slower growth rate is anticipated for both corporate (5–10%) and household (7–12%) funds in the current year.
The forecast for 2025 includes an expected slight reduction in net interest margin and a significant rise in risk costs, which could lead to profits declining to between ₽3 trillion and ₽3.5 trillion.
Further details can be found in the quarterly review Banking Sector.
