The Decision Maker Panel (DMP) survey for June 2025, conducted from June 6 to June 20, received responses from 2,129 Chief Financial Officers across UK businesses. The survey monitors economic developments and business perspectives.
Firms reported that their realised own-price growth held steady at an average annual rate of 3.5% in the three months leading up to June. This data encompasses firms across the entire economy, not just those consumer-facing. For the year ahead, firms anticipated a slight decrease in own-price inflation expectations to 3.6%, down by 0.1 percentage points from the previous three months.
Year-ahead Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation expectations dropped by 0.1 percentage points to 3.1% over the same period, although there was a single-month increase of 0.3 percentage points. Expectations for CPI inflation three years ahead remained unchanged at 2.8%.
Regarding wages, firms reported an annual growth rate of 4.6% in the three months to June, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points compared to May’s figures. Expected wage growth for the coming year also fell by 0.1 percentage points to a moving average of 3.6%. Firms projected a decline in wage growth by one percentage point over the next year.
The survey also explored potential impacts of recent US trade policy changes on sales, prices, and investment over the next year. Over two-thirds of firms indicated no material impact from these changes on their operations. However, 29% expected lower sales and 24% anticipated reduced capital expenditures due to US trade policies.
In terms of pricing, while 19% of firms foresaw lower average prices as a result of tariff changes, another 12% expected higher prices.
US trade policy emerged as one of the top three sources of uncertainty for businesses according to 14% of respondents—an increase of two percentage points since May but still below April levels. Overall business uncertainty remained high or very high for 56% of firms during this period.
The DMP is managed by the Bank of England alongside King’s College London and the University of Nottingham since its inception in August 2016 and is funded by the Economic and Social Research Council.
Information from this article can be found here.
