The European Central Bank (ECB) has released the results of its Survey of Professional Forecasters for the third quarter of 2025. The survey reveals that respondents expect headline inflation, as measured by the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), to be 2.0% in 2025, 1.8% in 2026, and 2.0% in 2027. These figures represent a downward revision of 0.2 percentage points for both 2025 and 2026 compared to the previous survey conducted in the second quarter of 2025, while expectations for 2027 remain unchanged.
Expectations for core HICP inflation, which excludes energy and food prices, have been slightly revised down for both 2026 and 2027. Longer-term expectations for both headline and core HICP inflation remain steady at 2.0%.
The survey also indicates an anticipated real GDP growth rate of 1.1% for both 2025 and 2026, with an increase to 1.4% expected in 2027. Compared to the previous survey, these figures reflect an upward revision of 0.2 percentage points for 2025 but a downward adjustment of 0.1 percentage points for 2026.
The unemployment rate is projected to average at around 6.3% in both 2025 and 2026 before decreasing slightly to 6.2% in 2027, where it is expected to stabilize over the longer term.
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