The European Central Bank (ECB) released its Consumer Expectations Survey results for October 2025, showing a steady perception of inflation over the past year. Median consumer expectations for inflation in the next three years and five years remained stable, while expectations for the next 12 months rose slightly.
The survey revealed that median perceived inflation stayed at 3.1% for nine consecutive months. However, expectations for inflation in the coming year increased to 2.8%, up from 2.7% in September. Inflation expectations for three and five years ahead were unchanged at 2.5% and 2.2%, respectively.
Income growth expectations saw a slight increase, with consumers anticipating a nominal income growth of 1.2% over the next year, compared to 1.1% previously reported in September. Spending growth expectations remained constant at 3.5%.
Economic growth forecasts became less negative, improving to -1.1% from -1.2%. However, unemployment rate expectations rose to 11% from September’s 10.7%. Lower-income households predicted higher unemployment rates than their higher-income counterparts.
Housing market predictions showed stability in home price growth expectations at 3.5%. Mortgage interest rate expectations continued to rise for the second month, reaching 4.7%. Credit access tightened slightly over the past year, with fewer consumers applying for credit recently.
The ECB plans to release November’s survey results on January 8, 2026.
For more information about the survey and data collection methods, visit the CES web page or refer to publications by Bańkowska et al., and Georgarakos and Kenny.
Information from this article can be found here.
