The European Central Bank (ECB) released its Consumer Expectations Survey results for September 2025, indicating stable consumer perceptions of inflation and economic growth. Median inflation perceptions over the past year remained at 3.1% for the eighth month in a row. Expectations for inflation over the next 12 months decreased slightly to 2.7%, down from 2.8% in August. Long-term inflation expectations, three and five years ahead, remained steady at 2.5% and 2.2%, respectively.
Income expectations showed no change, with nominal income growth anticipated to remain at 1.1% over the next year. However, expected spending growth increased slightly to 3.5%, up from August’s figure of 3.3%. Economic growth projections stayed unchanged at -1.2%, while unemployment rate expectations held steady at 10.7%.
Housing market expectations revealed an increase in home price growth to 3.5% over the next year, slightly higher than August’s forecast of 3.4%. Mortgage interest rates are expected to rise to 4.6%, compared to last month’s expectation of 4.5%. The survey noted a marginal decline in households reporting tighter credit access over the past year, but an increase in those expecting tighter conditions in the coming year.
The ECB’s monthly survey includes around 19,000 adult consumers from eleven euro area countries: Belgium, Germany, Ireland, Greece, Spain, France, Italy, the Netherlands, Austria, Portugal, and Finland.
The detailed microdata supporting these results can be accessed on the Consumer Expectations Survey web page of the ECB’s website.
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