The latest edition of the Russian Journal of Money and Finance for 2024 has been released, focusing on the role of central banks’ communication in shaping market expectations. The publication highlights various studies that explore this dynamic.
Victoria Bannikova from Lomonosov Moscow State University evaluates how the Bank of Russia’s communications influence the yield curve of federal government bonds. In a related study, Alexey Erokhin and Olga Klachkova, also from Lomonosov Moscow State University, identify a statistically significant link between investors’ inflation expectations and the tone—either ‘hawkish’ or ‘dovish’—of the Bank’s press releases and other monetary policy news.
The journal further discusses regional responses to central bank decisions. Researchers from the Siberian Main Branch of the Bank of Russia have developed a model specific to the Siberian macroregion. They highlight that changes in world commodity prices elicit a stronger response in this region compared to Russia as a whole.
Additionally, Matvey Finagin and Sergey Sheremeta from the Bank of Russia analyze models for forecasting non-oil and gas revenues. Their findings suggest that separating forecasts into eight different tax groups—from personal income tax to import duties—yields more accurate results.
The current issue of the Russian Journal of Money and Finance is accessible on its website.
