US Treasury Announces Increased Marketable Borrowing Estimates for Q2 and Q3 2023

The US Department of the Treasury has revealed its current estimates for privately-held net marketable borrowing for Q2 (April-June) and Q3 (July-September) 2023. The Treasury expects to borrow $726 billion in Q2, with a projected end-of-June cash balance of $550 billion. This estimate is $449 billion higher than the January 2023 announcement, mainly due to the lower beginning-of-quarter cash balance ($322 billion) and projections of lower receipts and higher outlays ($117 billion).

For Q3, the Treasury anticipates borrowing $733 billion in privately-held net marketable debt, assuming an end-of-September cash balance of $600 billion. In Q1 (January-March) 2023, the Treasury borrowed $657 billion, ending the quarter with a cash balance of $178 billion. The January estimate predicted borrowing of $932 billion and an end-of-March cash balance of $500 billion. The $275 billion difference in privately-held net market borrowing primarily resulted from a lower end-of-quarter cash balance, offset somewhat by lower net fiscal flows.