In the first quarter of 2024, household funds increased by 3.8% amid growing incomes, high interest rates, and the capitalization of interest on deposits. This represents the highest first-quarter value recorded. The 2024 forecast for household funds was revised from an initial range of 8–13% to a new range of 14–19%.
Amid tighter monetary policy, corporate lending decreased by more than 50% to 2.4% in Q1 2024 compared to Q4 2023 but remained above expectations. Consequently, the forecast for corporate lending growth in 2024 was raised from a range of 6–11% to a range of 8–13%.
Mortgage lending slowed significantly to 2.6%, primarily due to changes in the terms and conditions of government-subsidized programs, tight monetary and macroprudential policies, as well as a seasonal decrease in activity at the beginning of the year. The forecast for mortgage lending in 2024 remained within the range of 7–12%. In contrast, consumer lending accelerated noticeably to 3.7%, driven by high consumer activity on the back of household income growth. The forecast for consumer lending in 2024 was revised upwards from an initial range of 3–8% to a new range of 7–12%.
The banking sector earned approximately ₽0.9 trillion in Q1 2024. The growth in profit was mainly attributed to a decreased cost of risk on corporate loans and lower operating expenses. Considering business growth, a moderate decrease in margins, and low provisioning, the profit forecast for the banking sector in 2024 was increased to a range of ₽3.1—3.6 trillion.
More details are available in the quarterly review Banking Sector.