This economic note explores the potential macroeconomic impacts of the newly introduced two-pot pension system. According to the core model, a moderate two-pot system scenario is projected to add 0.1 and 0.3 percentage points (pp) to GDP growth in 2024 and 2025, respectively, while reducing the government debt-to-GDP ratio by 0.5 pp in 2024/25 and by 1.0 pp in 2025/26.
Under a high withdrawal scenario, GDP growth is expected to increase by 0.3 and 0.7 pp in 2024 and 2025, respectively. The government debt-to-GDP ratio would improve by 1.1 pp in 2024/25 and by 2.3 pp in 2025/26.
However, higher withdrawal rates may result in fewer funds being available at retirement age. These impacts are relatively modest compared with pension reforms elsewhere; for example, rule changes in Chile allowed much larger withdrawals, leading to a decline of pension assets by 14% of GDP.