The publication covers the main aspects of the discussion about the economic situation and inflation, monetary and external conditions, and alternatives to the key rate decision.
The discussants agreed that all factors noted during the March meeting as ones that would lead to a higher key rate had materialized. At the July meeting, the participants focused on the scale of the key rate increase and the signal about future decisions.
Following the discussion, the meeting decided to raise the key rate to 18.00% per annum. At upcoming meetings, the Bank of Russia will assess whether the key rate should be raised further, taking into account future economic developments and the steadiness of inflation deceleration.
The updated medium-term forecast assumes a considerably higher projected path of the key rate for 2024–2026, which is required for stabilizing inflation at the target level of around 4%.
Simultaneously, the Bank of Russia has released the Commentary on the Bank of Russia’s Medium-term Forecast detailing parameters of its macroeconomic forecast published following its Board of Directors’ key rate meeting on 26 July 2024.