The third issue of the scholarly quarterly Russian Journal of Money and Finance for 2024 has been published.
Price growth rates in Russian regions differ, which may undermine efficient monetary policy. However, the analysis of food inflation in Russian regions evidences the convergence of the growth rates of food prices, i.e., a decline in the number of differences. The convergence is less pronounced in the regions of the Far Eastern and North Caucasian Federal Districts, which may be due to geographical remoteness (in the case of the Far East), a large share of the informal sector (for the North Caucasian regions), and low retail chain penetration. This means that increasing the level of transport and logistics connectivity is a much-needed measure of state policy.
The consumer basket that is used for calculating the Consumer Price Index (CPI) includes multiple categories of goods and services. The prices in each category are determined by an individual set of factors. To take into account this variety, inflation should be forecast separately for each category, and subsequently, these indicators should be used to make up an aggregated forecast. Experiments using Russian data have shown that such an approach may provide a much more accurate result than simply predicting headline CPI.
During global crises like the Great Recession in 2008, the European debt crisis in 2011–2012, and COVID-19 shock in 2020, stock market regulators in many countries banned short sales to stabilize markets. However, this step may entail negative consequences. The analysis of data from European stock markets in 2020 shows that short-selling bans lead to increases in metrics used to determine required capital amounts. As a result, banking systems become more vulnerable.
The level of competition in the banking sector impacts all financial consumers regarding their costs, incomes, and lending opportunities. An analysis presented at a seminar hosted by institutions including Bank of Russia reviewed competition across different financial market segments and its impact on social welfare and monetary policy efficiency.
The new issue (No. 3) for September 2024 is available on their website.