In recent years, geopolitical tensions have increasingly impacted the global economy and policy-making. This shift contrasts with the period following the 2008-09 Global Financial Crisis when investors prioritized economic performance over political dynamics. At that time, global policies were more aligned with economic conditions rather than political risks.
Currently, geopolitics is a complex mix of events and thematic risks that present significant challenges to the world economy. The ongoing Russia-Ukraine war, the Israel-Hamas conflict, and climate change's effect on food prices are notable issues likely to affect South Africa in the medium term. Additionally, upcoming general elections this year may further threaten political stability.
The growing complexity of geopolitical factors suggests an increased risk of unexpected developments in the coming decade.