On April 26, 2024, the Bank of Russia Board of Directors decided to maintain the key rate at 16.00% per annum. Although inflationary pressures are gradually easing, they remain high due to elevated domestic demand outpacing supply capabilities. This situation is expected to slow down the return of inflation to the target more than previously forecasted by the Bank in February.
The Bank's baseline scenario now includes a raised forecast for the average key rate in 2024 and 2025, set at 15.0–16.0% and 10.0–12.0%, respectively. "The return of inflation to target and its further stabilization close to 4% assume that tight monetary conditions will be maintained in the economy for a longer period than previously forecast," according to their statement.
March saw seasonally adjusted price growth decrease to an annualized rate of 4.5%, down from February's 6.3%. This decline was largely attributed to volatile components, while underlying inflationary pressures decreased but remained high due to strong domestic demand growth.
Inflation expectations present mixed dynamics; household expectations continued declining in April, whereas businesses' price expectations rose slightly after several months of decline.
In Q1 of 2024, high-frequency indicators showed that Russia's economy grew faster than anticipated with significant consumer activity fueled by increased household incomes and positive sentiment. The GDP growth forecast for this year has been revised upwards to between 2.5% and 3.5%.
Labour shortages are identified as a primary constraint on output expansion across various industries, exacerbating labor market tightness.
Monetary conditions have not changed significantly since the last meeting of the Board of Directors; both nominal and real interest rates continue rising, supporting saving tendencies while allowing households with higher incomes to increase both savings and consumption simultaneously.
Lending activities vary across sectors; unsecured consumer lending has accelerated while mortgage lending slows down due to market trends. Corporate lending expanded more quickly in March after moderate early-year growth but remains slower compared with Q4 of 2023 when adjusted seasonally.
Over the medium term, inflation risks lean towards an upside bias influenced by factors like geopolitical tensions affecting trade terms and persistently high inflation expectations along with fiscal policy normalization paths.
Following this meeting on April 26th regarding key rates decisions made by their board members—the Bank plans further disclosures: On May13th they'll release summaries discussing these matters alongside commentary about medium-term forecasts before convening again June7th whereupon publishing results around half-past one local Moscow time