Corporate lending has shown rapid growth in the third quarter of 2024, with a rise of 6.4% compared to 5% in the previous quarter. The main areas of growth were project financing for housing construction and loans for investment projects by large companies, which are less affected by monetary tightening. The annual forecast for corporate lending has been revised upwards to 17–20%. However, it is anticipated that tight monetary policy will moderate this growth rate to more sustainable levels in 2025.
In contrast, mortgage growth has slowed significantly to 2.4% from 6.3%, following the end of a broad non-targeted government subsidized program. By year-end, mortgage growth is expected to reach 15%, excluding securitization transactions, which are projected at 8–11%. Unsecured consumer lending also decelerated to 3.4% from 5.9%, influenced by stricter macroprudential regulations and higher interest rates. Despite this slowdown, the upper limit of the annual forecast for unsecured consumer lending was increased to +18%.
Household deposits in bank accounts continued to grow but at a slower pace than in the second quarter (+3.8% after +6.5%). This trend is partly attributed to high holiday expenses. Additionally, there may be a significant seasonal inflow of funds in the fourth quarter due to annual bonuses and anticipation of higher tax payments, leading to an upward revision of the annual forecast to 23–26%.
Corporate deposits saw an increase of 4.7%, up from 2.2%, primarily driven by ruble funds from exporting companies. Consequently, the annual forecast for corporate deposits was adjusted upwards to 9–12%.
The banking sector's revenue reached ₽1.1 trillion; however, overall financial performance was lower at ₽0.8 trillion due to negative revaluation of securities included directly in capital.
Further details can be found in the quarterly review Banking Sector.