The recent publication discussed key aspects of the economic situation, focusing on inflation, monetary conditions, external factors, and potential changes to the key rate. Participants observed that inflation pressures had been easing from the start of the year but still remained high. The growth in lending has slowed, while household deposits have seen active growth. There is an increase in domestic demand, though at a slower pace, and indications of reduced labor shortages, which could suggest a cooling of the economy and a potential slowdown in inflation. However, more time is necessary to ensure these trends are sustainable.
On March 21, 2025, the Bank of Russia Board of Directors chose to maintain the key rate at 21.00% per annum. Although the likelihood of a key rate increase in the near future has diminished, this option remains under consideration should disinflation fail to reduce the inflation rate to 4% by 2026.